The Mathematical and Historical Case for the Prophecies of Jesus Christ

The fulfillment of Messianic prophecies in the life of Jesus Christ stands as one of the most compelling evidences of His divine identity. Mathematician Peter Stoner's groundbreaking probability analysis, detailed in Science Speaks, provides an irrefutable argument for the supernatural nature of these prophecies. He conducted an analysis of biblical prophecies to determine the probability of them being fulfilled by chance. Stoner focused on the birth narrative and life of the Lord Jesus Christ, specifically examining the fulfillment of Messianic prophecies. Coupled with historical and archeological evidence, this case strengthens the apologetic defense of Christianity.

Peter Stoner’s Prophecy Analysis

Peter Stoner applied probability theory to examine the likelihood of one individual fulfilling specific Messianic prophecies. His work underscores the divine orchestration behind these events. Below is an overview of some key prophecies, their fulfillment, and the associated probabilities:

Key Findings by Peter Stoner:

Stoner chose eight specific prophecies about the Messiah and calculated the probability of one man fulfilling all eight by random chance. These eight prophecies include:

Born in Bethlehem (Micah 5:2).
Preceded by a messenger (Malachi 3:1).
Enter Jerusalem riding on a donkey (Zechariah 9:9).
Betrayed by a friend (Psalm 41:9).
Sold for 30 pieces of silver (Zechariah 11:12).
Money used to buy a potter’s field (Zechariah 11:13).
Silent before His accusers (Isaiah 53:7).
Hands and feet pierced (Psalm 22:16).

Let us dig deeper on these key findings

1. Prophecy: Born in Bethlehem

Prophecy : Born in Bethlehem

Prophecy:
"But thou, Bethlehem Ephratah, though thou be little among the thousands of Judah, yet out of thee shall he come forth unto me that is to be ruler in Israel; whose goings forth have been from of old, from everlasting." (Micah 5:2, KJV)
Fulfillment:
Jesus was born in Bethlehem as recorded in Matthew 2:1 and Luke 2:4-7.
Historical Evidence:
The Roman census during Caesar Augustus’ reign led Joseph and Mary to Bethlehem, a historical fact corroborated by Roman records and Jewish traditions.
Probability: 1 in 280,000 (based on the small population of Bethlehem compared to the world population).

2. Prophecy: Preceded by a Messenger

Scripture: "The voice of him that crieth in the wilderness, Prepare ye the way of the Lord" (Isaiah 40:3, KJV).
Fulfillment: John the Baptist’s ministry (Matthew 3:1-3).
Probability: 1 in 1,000.

3. Prophecy: Entering Jerusalem on a Donkey

Prophecy:
"Rejoice greatly, O daughter of Zion; shout, O daughter of Jerusalem: behold, thy King cometh unto thee: he is just, and having salvation; lowly, and riding upon an ass, and upon a colt the foal of an ass." (Zechariah 9:9, KJV)
Fulfillment:
Jesus entered Jerusalem on a donkey, as recorded in Matthew 21:1-11 and John 12:12-16.
Historical Evidence:
The triumphal entry is celebrated in Christian tradition as Palm Sunday, corroborated by multiple Gospel accounts.
Probability: 1 in 100.

4. Prophecy: Betrayed for 30 Pieces of Silver

Prophecy:
"And I said unto them, If ye think good, give me my price; and if not, forbear. So they weighed for my price thirty pieces of silver." (Zechariah 11:12, KJV)
Fulfillment:
Judas Iscariot betrayed Jesus for exactly 30 pieces of silver (Matthew 26:14-15).
Historical Evidence:
The Gospel accounts detail this betrayal, and first-century historians like Tacitus confirm that Jesus was betrayed by one of His followers.
Probability: 1 in 1,000.

5. Prophecy: Betrayal Money Used for Potter’s Field

Scripture: "And I took the thirty pieces of silver...and cast them to the potter in the house of the Lord" (Zechariah 11:13, KJV).
Fulfillment: Purchase of the potter’s field (Matthew 27:3-7).
Probability: 1 in 100,000.

6. Prophecy: Silent Before Accusers

Prophecy:
"He was oppressed, and he was afflicted, yet he opened not his mouth: he is brought as a lamb to the slaughter, and as a sheep before her shearers is dumb, so he openeth not his mouth." (Isaiah 53:7, KJV)
Fulfillment:
During His trial, Jesus remained silent before Pilate and His accusers (Matthew 27:12-14).
Historical Evidence:
The Gospel accounts align with historical records of Roman trials, which were highly public and well-documented.
Probability: 1 in 1,000.

7. Prophecy: Crucifixion

Prophecy:
"For dogs have compassed me: the assembly of the wicked have inclosed me: they pierced my hands and my feet." (Psalm 22:16, KJV)
Fulfillment:
Jesus was crucified, with His hands and feet nailed to the cross (John 20:25).
Historical Evidence:
Roman crucifixion practices align with this description. Tacitus and Josephus, non-Christian historians, confirm that Jesus was executed by crucifixion.
Probability: 1 in 10,000.

8. Prophecy: Buried in a Rich Man’s Tomb

Prophecy:
"And he made his grave with the wicked, and with the rich in his death; because he had done no violence, neither was any deceit in his mouth." (Isaiah 53:9, KJV)
Fulfillment:
Jesus was buried in the tomb of Joseph of Arimathea, a wealthy man (Matthew 27:57-60).
Historical Evidence:
Archaeological findings support Jewish burial customs, and Joseph’s role as a member of the Sanhedrin lends credibility to this account.
Probability: 1 in 1,000.

The expression "1 in 1,000" refers to the probability or likelihood of a particular event happening. It means that out of 1,000 possible scenarios or trials, the event is expected to occur only once, on average. Here’s a deeper breakdown:

1. Mathematical Perspective:

As a fraction: $\frac{1}{1,000} = 0.001$ .
As a percentage: $0.001 \times 100 = 0.1\%$ .
This indicates the event has a 0.1% chance of occurring in any given scenario.

2. Illustration:

Imagine 1,000 marbles in a bag, where only 1 marble is red, and the other 999 are blue. If you close your eyes and randomly pick a marble, the chance of picking the red one is 1 in 1,000.

3. Context of Prophecies:

When Peter Stoner used "1 in 1,000" as the probability for a prophecy's fulfillment (e.g., a messenger preceding the Messiah), he was estimating how rare and unlikely it would be for such an event to occur naturally, without divine orchestration. It implies that the chance of any random person fulfilling just that prophecy is incredibly small.

Combined Probability for 8 Prophecies

Probability Calculation:

Stoner and his students calculated the odds of each prophecy being fulfilled individually, and then collectively:

The chance of one man being born in Bethlehem (Micah 5:2): 1 in 280,000 (based on population estimates).
The chance of one man fulfilling all eight prophecies: 1 in 10^17 (or 1 in 100,000,000,000,000,000).

Illustration of the Probability:

To make this number comprehensible, Stoner used the following analogy:

Imagine covering the entire state of Texas with silver dollars two feet deep.
Mark one silver dollar with an "X" and mix it thoroughly into the pile.
Blindfold a person and allow them to pick just one silver dollar.
The probability of them picking the marked coin in one attempt is 1 in 10^17—the same odds as one man fulfilling all eight Messianic prophecies by chance.

Expanded Analysis:

Stoner extended his calculations to include 48 prophecies about the Messiah, concluding that the probability of one person fulfilling all 48 is 1 in 10^157. This number is astronomically large, far exceeding the total number of atoms in the observable universe.

The Combined Probability:

When Stoner extended his analysis to include 48 specific prophecies, the probability of one person fulfilling all 48 by chance was calculated as 1 in 10^157 (1 followed by 157 zeros). To illustrate how vast this number is:
Atoms in the observable universe: Estimated at approximately 10^80.
The probability of one person fulfilling all 48 prophecies exceeds the total number of atoms in the universe by an incomprehensible margin.

Conclusion of Stoner’s Work:

Peter Stoner emphasized that the fulfillment of these prophecies is not a product of coincidence or human planning. His analysis demonstrates the divine orchestration behind the life and mission of Jesus Christ. The statistical impossibility of fulfilling these prophecies by chance provides powerful evidence for the reliability of Scripture and the identity of Jesus as the promised Messiah.
Stoner concludes in Science Speaks:
“This is not merely evidence, but proof of the divine origin of the Bible.”

Expanded List of Prophecies Analyzed:

In addition to the eight prophecies initially examined, Peter Stoner and his team explored others. Here are more examples of prophecies fulfilled by Jesus, with the probability estimates for their fulfillment by chance:

The Messiah would be from the lineage of David
Prophecy: "I have made a covenant with my chosen, I have sworn unto David my servant" (Psalm 89:3-4).
Fulfillment: Jesus was a descendant of David through both Joseph and Mary (Matthew 1:1, Luke 3:31).
Probability estimate: 1 in 10,000.
A virgin would conceive and bear a son (Isaiah 7:14)
Prophecy: "Behold, a virgin shall conceive, and bear a son, and shall call his name Immanuel."
Fulfillment: Mary, a virgin, conceived Jesus through the Holy Spirit (Matthew 1:22-23).
Probability estimate: 1 in 100,000.
He would be called out of Egypt
Prophecy: "Out of Egypt have I called my son" (Hosea 11:1).
Fulfillment: Jesus fled to Egypt with Mary and Joseph to escape Herod and later returned (Matthew 2:14-15).
Probability estimate: 1 in 10,000.
His garments would be divided, and lots cast for them
Prophecy: "They part my garments among them, and cast lots upon my vesture" (Psalm 22:18).
Fulfillment: The soldiers divided Jesus' clothing and cast lots for His seamless robe (John 19:23-24).
Probability estimate: 1 in 100.
The Messiah would be betrayed for 30 pieces of silver
Prophecy: "And I said unto them, If ye think good, give me my price; and if not, forbear. So they weighed for my price thirty pieces of silver" (Zechariah 11:12).
Fulfillment: Judas Iscariot betrayed Jesus for 30 pieces of silver (Matthew 26:14-15).
Probability estimate: 1 in 1,000.
The silver would be used to buy a potter’s field
Prophecy: "And the Lord said unto me, Cast it unto the potter: a goodly price that I was prised at of them. And I took the thirty pieces of silver, and cast them to the potter in the house of the Lord" (Zechariah 11:13).
Fulfillment: The money Judas returned was used to buy a potter’s field (Matthew 27:5-7).
Probability estimate: 1 in 100,000.
He would be silent before His accusers
Prophecy: "He was oppressed, and he was afflicted, yet he opened not his mouth: he is brought as a lamb to the slaughter, and as a sheep before her shearers is dumb, so he openeth not his mouth" (Isaiah 53:7).
Fulfillment: Jesus remained silent during His trial before Pilate (Matthew 27:12-14).
Probability estimate: 1 in 1,000.
He would die by crucifixion
Prophecy: "They pierced my hands and my feet" (Psalm 22:16).
Fulfillment: Jesus was crucified, with His hands and feet nailed to the cross (John 20:25).
Probability estimate: 1 in 10,000.
Messiah Would Be Born of a Virgin

Prophecy:
"Therefore the Lord himself shall give you a sign; Behold, a virgin shall conceive, and bear a son, and shall call his name Immanuel." (Isaiah 7:14, KJV)
Fulfillment:
Jesus was born of the virgin Mary (Matthew 1:18-23; Luke 1:26-35).
Probability: 1 in 100.

Messiah Would Be Called Out of Egypt

Prophecy:
"When Israel was a child, then I loved him, and called my son out of Egypt." (Hosea 11:1, KJV)
Fulfillment:
Joseph and Mary fled to Egypt with Jesus to escape King Herod, and they later returned (Matthew 2:13-15).
Probability: 1 in 1,000.

Messiah Would Be Despised and Rejected

Prophecy:
"He is despised and rejected of men; a man of sorrows, and acquainted with grief: and we hid as it were our faces from him; he was despised, and we esteemed him not." (Isaiah 53:3, KJV)
Fulfillment:
Jesus was rejected by His own people and leaders (John 1:11, Luke 23:18).
Probability: 1 in 5.

Messiah Would Be Crucified with Criminals

Prophecy:
"And he was numbered with the transgressors; and he bare the sin of many, and made intercession for the transgressors." (Isaiah 53:12, KJV)
Fulfillment:
Jesus was crucified between two thieves (Luke 23:32-34).
Probability: 1 in 1,000.

Apologetic Significance

1. Evidence of Divine Authorship

The staggering improbability of fulfilling these prophecies by chance underscores the Bible’s divine inspiration and Jesus’ identity as the Messiah. Stoner’s analysis highlights the historical and prophetic accuracy of the Bible. By showing how prophecies written centuries before Jesus were fulfilled, Christians can argue for the Bible’s divine inspiration.

2. Evidence-Based Faith

Peter Stoner’s work provides a powerful tool for Christians to demonstrate that faith in Jesus is not blind but grounded in measurable evidence. Apologists can use Stoner’s findings to bridge the gap between faith and reason.

3. Refuting Skepticism

Skeptics may claim Jesus deliberately fulfilled these prophecies. However, events such as His birthplace, manner of death, and betrayal were beyond His human control, nullifying this argument.

3. Rational Appeal to Non-Believers

Stoner’s work bridges faith and reason, offering an evidence-based argument for the Gospel’s truth. Mathematical evidence can resonate with people who value empirical data. Stoner’s work presents a compelling case for Jesus as the Messiah, appealing to both the mind and heart.

Historical Evidence Supporting Prophecies and Fulfillments

1. Non-Biblical Historical Evidence for Jesus

Tacitus (c. 56–120 AD):
Roman historian Tacitus confirms the execution of “Christus” (Jesus) under Pontius Pilate during the reign of Emperor Tiberius.
Josephus (c. 37–100 AD):
Jewish historian mentions Jesus as a wise teacher who performed miracles and was crucified.
Pliny the Younger (c. 61–113 AD):
Roman official notes early Christian worship of Christ as a deity.

2. Archeological Evidence Supporting Gospel Events

Roman Census Records:
Historical documentation confirms that Caesar Augustus issued a decree for a census, aligning with Luke 2:1-3.
Crucifixion Practices:
Archeological findings in Jerusalem verify the use of nails for crucifixion, consistent with descriptions in Psalm 22 and the Gospels.
Joseph of Arimathea’s Tomb:
Tombs from the 1st century in Jerusalem match the description of a “rich man’s tomb.”

3. Alignment with Jewish Messianic Expectations

The Dead Sea Scrolls, particularly the Isaiah Scroll, confirm that Messianic prophecies existed centuries before Jesus’ birth, proving that He did not fabricate events retroactively.

Conclusion

Peter Stoner’s mathematical analysis, supported by historical and archeological evidence, demonstrates that the fulfillment of Messianic prophecies in Jesus Christ is beyond mere chance. This convergence of mathematics, history, and faith provides a robust foundation for the Christian belief in Jesus as the promised Messiah and validates the Bible as the inspired Word of God.

Methodology Used by Peter Stoner in Science Speaks

Peter Stoner, a mathematician and professor, used principles of probability theory to analyze Messianic prophecies. His methodology involved rigorous calculations and conservative estimates to avoid exaggeration. Below is an overview of how he conducted his study:

Steps in Stoner's Analysis

Selection of Prophecies
Stoner chose prophecies about the Messiah that were:
- Clear and specific (not open to interpretation).
- Historically documented as written centuries before the life of Jesus.
- Documented in the New Testament as fulfilled by Jesus.
Estimation of Probabilities
Stoner and his students assigned probability estimates to each prophecy based on:
- Historical data.
- Logical reasoning.
- Expert opinions (e.g., population studies, events in history).
For example:
- The probability of being born in Bethlehem (Micah 5:2) was calculated using the estimated population of Bethlehem at the time versus the population of the world.
Multiplying Probabilities
To determine the probability of one person fulfilling multiple prophecies, Stoner multiplied the probabilities of fulfilling each individual prophecy. This method assumes the events are independent (one fulfillment does not influence another).
Example:
If the probability of fulfilling Prophecy A is 1 in 100 and Prophecy B is 1 in 1,000, the combined probability is:
$\text{1 in 100} \times \text{1 in 1,000} = \text{1 in 100,000}.$
Verification of Calculations
Stoner’s findings were reviewed by the American Scientific Affiliation, a professional organization of scientists and scholars. They confirmed that his methodology was sound and calculations reliable.

Examples of Calculations

Here are some specific probabilities Stoner used in his work:

Born in Bethlehem (Micah 5:2):
Probability: 1 in 280,000 (based on population estimates).
Betrayed for 30 pieces of silver (Zechariah 11:12):
Probability: 1 in 1,000.
Riding into Jerusalem on a donkey (Zechariah 9:9):
Probability: 1 in 100.
Hands and feet pierced (Psalm 22:16):
Probability: 1 in 10,000 (crucifixion was not common at the time the prophecy was written).
Crucified with criminals (Isaiah 53:12):
Probability: 1 in 1,000.
Silent before His accusers (Isaiah 53:7):
Probability: 1 in 1,000.
Buried in a rich man’s tomb (Isaiah 53:9):
Probability: 1 in 1,000.

Verification of Historical and Scriptural Context

Stoner's analysis included verification that:

The prophecies were written centuries before Jesus (as evidenced by the Septuagint and Dead Sea Scrolls).
The fulfillment of these prophecies in Jesus’ life was historically documented (both in Scripture and external sources).

Illustration for the Probability of 48 Prophecies

To illustrate the probability of 1 in 10^157 (fulfilling 48 prophecies), Stoner provided the following analogy:

Imagine 10^157 silver dollars.
If these were compressed into a solid sphere, it would be larger than the known universe.
Mark one silver dollar, blindfold a person, and let them select one coin randomly.
The probability of them picking the marked coin is the same as one person fulfilling all 48 prophecies by chance.

This number exceeds the total number of atoms in the observable universe, illustrating that fulfilling these prophecies is humanly impossible without divine intervention.

Why Stoner’s Work Matters

Validity of Scripture
Stoner’s work demonstrates that the Bible’s prophetic accuracy is mathematically impossible to achieve by random chance, affirming the divine inspiration of the Scriptures.
Evidence for Jesus as the Messiah
The overwhelming improbability of fulfilling these prophecies by chance supports the claim that Jesus is the promised Messiah, as foretold in the Old Testament.
Strengthens Faith
For believers, this study provides tangible, scientific evidence that bolsters faith in the truth of the Bible and God’s sovereignty.

Criticisms and Responses

While Stoner’s work has been widely celebrated, some criticisms include:

Independence of Prophecies
Critics argue that some prophecies may not be statistically independent (e.g., the probability of being born in Bethlehem might influence other factors).
- Response: Stoner intentionally used conservative estimates to mitigate this issue.
Historical Verification
Critics question the historical accuracy of certain fulfillments.

Response: Fulfillment events are documented not only in Scripture but also in extra-biblical sources like Josephus and Roman historians.

Apologetic Strategies Based on Stoner’s Analysis

1. Use of Mathematics to Demonstrate Divine Origin

Apologetic Angle:
Highlight how the statistical probabilities demonstrate that Jesus’ fulfillment of prophecy was not random but orchestrated by God.
Key Point:
Even fulfilling 8 prophecies (1 in $10^{17}$ ) is humanly impossible. Stoner’s analysis supports the idea that Jesus’ life aligns perfectly with divine prophecy.

2. Countering the “Self-Fulfillment” Argument

Skeptics' Claim:
Jesus intentionally fulfilled prophecies to appear as the Messiah.
Response:
Many prophecies (e.g., birthplace, virgin birth, betrayal price, manner of death) were beyond Jesus' control as a human. This invalidates claims of manipulation.

3. Bridging Faith and Logic

Example Approach:
Engage non-believers by showing how mathematics supports prophecy fulfillment. Appeal to their rational mindset to open the door for further exploration of faith.

Verse

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Friday, 24 January 2025