Survival Protocol Manual

For Families and Churches in the Philippines During Armed Conflict

Module 1 – Understanding the Threat

(Why preparedness is urgent, what scenarios we may face, and what lessons we can learn from history.)

1.1 The Geopolitical Context

The Philippines today finds itself in a strategic position in the Asia-Pacific. With U.S. military presence in bases in Luzon, Visayas, and Mindanao, and China asserting its territorial claims in the West Philippine Sea, the country could become a secondary battlefield in a China–Taiwan conflict.

• Northern Luzon (Ilocos, Cagayan, Batanes, La Union): Possible targets due to their proximity to Taiwan.
  
  

• Metro Manila and Major Cities: High-value targets for cyberattacks, infrastructure sabotage, or missile strikes.
  
  

• Ports and Airports: May be seized or disabled to restrict supplies.
  
  

1.2 Possible War Scenarios

• Airstrikes and Bombardment: On military bases, ports, and power plants.
  
  

• Naval Blockades: Cutting off imports like rice, fuel, and medicine.
  
  

• Cyber Warfare: Power blackouts, banking shutdowns, misinformation campaigns.
  
  

• Supply Shortages: Food, fuel, and medical supply disruptions.
  
  

• Civilian Casualties: From stray fire, collapsing buildings, and panic during evacuations.
  
  

1.3 Lessons from Ukraine

• Preparedness Saves Lives: Many Ukrainians who had “Go-Bags” and evacuation plans survived the first days of invasion.
  
  

• Churches Became Shelters: Providing food, prayer, and moral support.
  
  

• Information Warfare: False news and rumors worsened panic. Verification is essential.
  
  

1.4 A Biblical Lens

The Bible tells us to prepare without fear:

• “A prudent man foreseeth the evil, and hideth himself: but the simple pass on, and are punished.” (Proverbs 22:3, KJV)
  
  

• “Be strong and of a good courage, fear not, nor be afraid of them: for the LORD thy God, he it is that doth go with thee; he will not fail thee, nor forsake thee.” (Deuteronomy 31:6, KJV)
  
  

1.5 Action Steps for Families & Churches

✅ Start a Family Risk Conversation: Discuss “What if war happens?” calmly.
✅ List nearest likely targets (military bases, power plants, ports).
✅ Identify if you live near a high-risk zone (within 20–30 km of targets).
✅ Locate the nearest safe zone (barangay evacuation center, church, or rural relative).
✅ Begin church mapping: Know where your members live, who is vulnerable, and who has resources (vehicles, medical training, farms, wells, etc.).