Philippine Economic Performance Under Marcos Administration (2022-2025): An In-Depth Review
The Philippine economy, like much of the world, has faced a complex mix of post-pandemic recovery challenges, global inflation, and geopolitical uncertainties in recent years. Under the leadership of President Ferdinand "Bongbong" Marcos Jr., the country navigated these headwinds while striving to maintain growth momentum, stabilize inflation, and manage public debt. This article presents an exhaustive audit of the Philippines' economic performance from 2022 to early 2025, highlighting comparative insights from the Duterte administration and providing policy recommendations for the road ahead.
A Resilient But Moderating Growth Path
In 2022, the Philippine economy rebounded strongly with a 7.6% GDP growth, driven by economic reopening and pent-up demand. However, as global economic pressures mounted and borrowing costs increased, growth began to moderate:
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2023: 5.6%
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2024: 5.6%
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Q1 2025: 5.4% (below the government’s 6–7% target)
While still commendable, these figures reflect underlying vulnerabilities in exports, agriculture, and fiscal management.
Inflation Control as a Notable Achievement
A major success story for the Marcos administration has been the aggressive and effective containment of inflation. After peaking at 8.7% in early 2023, inflation steadily dropped to 3.9% by end-2023 and further down to 1.4% by April 2025, thanks to decisive monetary policy actions by the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas and easing global commodity prices.
Debt and Fiscal Health: A Growing Concern
The pandemic-era borrowing spree continued under the current administration, with national debt increasing from PHP 13.42 trillion in 2022 to PHP 16.68 trillion by March 2025. The debt-to-GDP ratio hovered around 60–61%, considered manageable but precariously close to fiscal stress levels, especially for a developing economy. Sustained fiscal prudence and a medium-term consolidation plan are urgently needed.
Sectoral Highlights: Winners and Weak Spots
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Services remained the key growth driver, contributing over 61% of GDP in 2024, led by retail, construction, and business process outsourcing.
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Agriculture consistently underperformed due to climate disruptions, insufficient modernization, and weak government support.
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Exports slumped from USD 80 billion in 2022 to USD 68 billion in 2024, widening the trade deficit and exposing competitiveness gaps.
Marcos vs. Duterte: A Comparative View
| Metric | Duterte (2016-2022) | Marcos (2022-2025) |
|---|---|---|
| Average GDP Growth | 6.6% (pre-pandemic), -9.5% in 2020, 5.7% (2021), 7.6% (2022) | 7.6% (2022), 5.6% (2023-2024) |
| Inflation Control | Spiked to 5.2% in 2018, mostly within target | Peaked at 8.7% in 2023, down to 1.4% by 2025 |
| Debt Accumulation | PHP 6.09T to PHP 13.42T | PHP 13.42T to PHP 16.68T |
| Sector Focus | Infrastructure (Build, Build, Build), industrialization | Inflation control, services-led recovery, Build Better More |
Risks and Opportunities Moving Forward
Key Risks:
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Persistent fiscal strain from rising public debt.
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Vulnerability to climate-induced agricultural losses.
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Stagnating export performance.
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External shocks from global economic and geopolitical tensions.
Growth Opportunities:
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Leveraging the country’s young, growing workforce.
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Tapping new markets through the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP).
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Sustaining infrastructure investments with strict fiscal oversight.
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Expanding the digital economy and enhancing ease of doing business.
Recommendations for Economic Stability and Growth
To address looming challenges and maximize opportunities, the Marcos administration should consider the following:
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Implement an export diversification strategy to reduce trade deficits and boost competitiveness.
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Modernize agriculture through climate-resilient practices, irrigation infrastructure, and technology adoption.
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Pursue a medium-term fiscal consolidation plan to control debt levels and improve revenue generation.
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Maximize RCEP benefits by integrating local SMEs and expanding market access.
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Maintain infrastructure momentum with strong project oversight and transparent public-private partnerships.
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Invest in workforce upskilling and education reforms to future-proof labor markets.
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Strengthen digital infrastructure and regulatory frameworks to attract technology-driven investments.
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Enhance social safety nets to cushion vulnerable sectors against inflationary and climate shocks.
Conclusion
The Philippine economy under the Marcos administration has shown resilience in the face of daunting post-pandemic challenges, notably achieving rapid inflation control while preserving modest growth momentum. Yet, the economy remains shackled by structural weaknesses, a sluggish export sector, and rising fiscal pressures.
Compared to his predecessor, Marcos has been adept at stabilizing inflation but must now confront deeper, more complex economic issues requiring bold, strategic, and long-term reforms. With prudent fiscal management, aggressive export development, and targeted sectoral modernization, the Philippines can navigate current risks and secure inclusive, sustainable growth in the years ahead.
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